Trump may be smart, but I think you have the Comey Tape thing all wrong. The best explanation I've heard is that Trump was taken aback by the level of detail related in the first NYT article regarding the "loyalty" dinner. That made Trump worry the Comey had taped him, not realizing that Comey was relying on contemporaneous memos. He put that tweet out to see if Comey would leak the tapes. That's why he waited so long. Once he was convinced that Comey had not taped him, Trump realized he could lie about what was said. It is just a theory, but makes more sense than yours. Why would Comey lie before Congress when he had discussed what was said with his colleagues long before he knew he would be fired? Comey is a lawyer. He would not risk perjury charges that could be proven by a third party.