Bakhmut becomes Artemovsk
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NewYorker describes Bakhmut meat grinder & how Russia won it:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
Don't buy 100% of their reporting. But interesting article, they tried.
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Important recent talk by Mearsheimer on current status of Ukraine War and what’s likely to happen next. Mearsheimer is the leading scholar of International Relations, and his predictions about the conflict have been highly accurate going back a decade.
[Author not me but guy here: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1665589545180741632 ]
[Maybe will help some lib blinded by media fairy tales - bla]
Key points:
(1) Current status:
— The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. The Russians have not won yet, but Mearsheimer believes they are winning and will win the war. Why?
— This is a war of attrition similar to WWI. The goal is to bleed out the other side. “This is Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier standing toe to toe and beating the hell out of each other in the center of the ring.”
— Who wins a war of attrition? 3 factors decide: (1) Balance of resolve. (Both sides are resolved.) (2) Population. (3) Artillery.
— Russia had a 3.5 to 1 population advantage at the beginning of the war. This has grown to about 5:1 as a result of 8+ million Ukrainian refugees, 3M of which have gone to Russia.
— Artillery is the “king of battle.” Balance of artillery is somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 in Russia’s favor. The US doesn’t have enough artillery to give Ukraine; that’s why we’re talking about tanks and planes. “Two armies standing toe to toe trying to destroy each other with firepower.” Russia has a lot more men and artillery.
— Casualty Exchange Ratio is at least 2:1, meaning that two Ukrainians are likely dying for every Russian. The Ukrainians’ claim of 7:1 CER in their favor is ludicrous. The Russians are not doing mindless frontal assaults. Recent RUSI report shows that Russian tactics have improved.
— Ukraine pushed large numbers of troops into Bakhmut in a losing effort. Ukrainians are becoming desperate to conscript men. Russia has not fully mobilized yet.(2) What’s likely to happen next:
— Russia will take the 4 oblasts they already annexed plus (if they can) another 4 oblasts to the Dnipro River including Odessa and Kharkiv. The goal would be to bring all the ethnic Russians under their control to avoid another “Donbas problem.”
— Russia doesn’t want to take western Ukraine (trying to conquer ethnic Ukrainians who hate them would be like “trying to swallow a porcupine”); but their goal is to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state so it can’t threaten them or be used as a Western bulwark on their border.
— There’s not going to be a peace agreement. Best case is a frozen conflict. Why? (1) the parties can’t agree on territory. (2) they can’t agree on neutrality. (3) Hyper-nationalism. Hatred on both sides makes a deal impossible. (4) No trust. Western leaders and Zelensky admitted that they had no intention of honoring the Minsk agreements and entered them just to buy time.
— George Kennan, Adm. Bill Perry, Amb. Jack Matlock, and Gen. Shalikashvili said that NATO expansion was a prescription for disaster. They were right. It’s only going to get worse. Mearsheimer hopes to be wrong about this, but this is his prediction.
— F16s won’t make a difference because it takes a long time to train good pilots. Also the Russians have very good air defense, and their own Air Force is ready to engage. Biggest risk of F16s is that Ukraine uses them to attack targets inside of Russia, creating an escalation, which could draw the US deeper into the war.
— Mearsheimer believes that if the Russians are losing the war, the likelihood of nuclear use to rescue the situation is high. (The war is existential for the Russians.) But as it stands now, the odds of nuclear use are very low because the Russians are winning. -
Ukraine launches counter-offensive. But even USA Regime admits, not going all that well.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html
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Reports from WSJ, UK Ministry of Defence & others that Ukraine counter offensive not going well.
btw I am old enough to remember Feb 2022, when all these Regime outlets promised, Russia economy to collapse within 3 weeks. Didn't happen.
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Israel former PM, says UK & USA repeatedly BLOCKED Ukraine peace, strove for war.
Hey USA libs, your Biden Regime at work. They want war & death.
Does it make you feel good libs? As u read, u going "Yes - Our Democracy(tm) so awesome! Raytheon supports Pride, so cool!" - ??
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@blablarg18 Shifting through maybes in the blame game, only one thing is fact: Putin invaded Ukraine. Moreover, his Russo-centric, revisionist rhetoric before and after the invasion hardly supports his desiring of a "peaceful" solution. A solution to a problem he created to boot. We've seen this shit before. Never thought I would see so many "Chamberlains" on the right.
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Fact: UK, Russia & USA fought WW2 together to defeat Nazi Germany.
Fact: Ukraine, tho in Soviet Union, largely fought with Nazi Germany - did their best.
Fact: Of 3 top Nazi foes, Russia paid highest price / has strongest historical memory.... Russia 25 to 30 million dead in WW2.
Fact: In 2010s and 2020s, UK & USA ally with Germany, and with actual literal WW2-descended Nazi battalions of Ukraine - Right Sector, Azov, Aidar - to make Russia feel as threatened as possible.
And Russia shouldn't feel threatened?
The news here, new fact: Even Ukraine knew they (Ukraine) gone too far.
Even they (Ukraine) wanted peace, willing to do large mutual concessions as their Russian brothers also willing to do - detailed in the antiwar.com article - suggest u read it.
Peace deal was close, Russia made concessions & on board with deal.....vetoed only by NATO paymasters of Ukraine.
To summarize.
UK, USA, and now you @jaroonn ...... were & are less reasonable than WW2-descended Ukraine Nazis.
Congratulations.
If you're such a Churchill, drive across border & volunteer for front lines in Bakhmut. Right now.
They're waiting. They need & deserve u.
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@blablarg18 I read your fictional article. I'm supposed believe Israel? Don't think so.
You knowledge of past history is quite sound. Although you conveniently left out the part of the Soviet Union invading Poland right after Germany? And I am sure you are well aware of the Katyn massacre which the Soviets blamed on the Nazis? And I am sure you are aware of the Holodomor which prompted many Ukrainians to erroneously great the Nazis as liberators. Of course they were wrong. But the Russians were just as bad as the Germans, even worse if you talk to people who live here. And that history doesn't matter anyway. The current situation is: Russia invaded Ukraine. If you think Putin was seriously worried about Nato invading Russia, your delusional. What Putin doesn't want is a prosperous liberal democracy on his doorstep, so all his people can see what a shithole he has turned their country into. Not even turned into. Just kept that way. Russia has had the worst version of every form of government they've ever had. And they lie. Bold-faced lies one after the other. You may be a completely pacifist above everything. And that I can respect. But an apologist for Russia? No. It's just not doable.
You should just focus on your culture wars and leave foreign policy to the adults.
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"believe Israel? Don't think so" - Wow anti-Semitic now too?
Is there anything you won't do @jaroonn to justify your support of WW2-descended Nazis of Ukraine, whilst claiming still to feel Gay Pride?
Sooooooo glad I don't have to jump thru ur pathetic hoops & mental gymnastics. What a relief.
Ukraine vs Russia is a conflict of Evil vs Evil.
Winning move for 3rd parties: Stay out. (except Red Cross stuff)
Video of Israel former PM, talking about his successful mediation efforts:
(successful except then, USA/UK veto)
@jaroonn Hope ur not offended too much by seeing video of, u know, Jooooooooz. /sarc
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@blablarg18 When I made that comment about the Israeli government, I kind of wondered if blabla would then play the false-equivalent anti-Semitic card. Thanks for not disappointing.
Once again you prove that you know some about the small picture, but can't really get your head around complex issues.
And I again invite you to come to Poland and talk to some of the "evil" Ukrainian refugees here and ask them what they want for the future of their country.
But don't listen to me. Do continue to worship at the altar of Tucker and the conspiracy theorists. Their crap seems easiest for you to digest.
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@blablarg18 So first I was a pedo, and now I am a Jew-hater?
You are so.....simple. Predictable, infantile and simple.
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"So first I was a pedo, and now I am a Jew-hater?"
To be clear: Never said those. Ever.
But have said that your attitude to protecting kids, as seen around here, is weirdly confused & callous.
And have said that ur mental gymnastics, the hoops u jump thru, are pathetic.
Like ur statement that u won't believe Israel former PM simply because he is from Israel, a trope of anti-Semitism whether or not it would apply to u.
Ya I said that much. Reading comprehension so important.
It bothers u to have truth pointed out. Ya said that much too.
PS. Hey Churchill - Keep us updated on ur intrepid progress to Bakhmut front lines. Best wishes. I mean it, may you return from your volunteer Ukraine military service in good health.
PS2. As to this, "If you think Putin was seriously worried about Nato invading Russia, your delusional"
comment is just ignorant.For years, West think tanks, policy papers & conferences fantasize openly about conquering & breaking Russia into several new countries West will control.
& for years, Ukraine-Nazi types fantasize openly about growing into Europe's dominant military, expanding borders as both EU & Russia quake in boots before Ukraine might.
& for decades, NATO types promise Russia to NOT expand NATO to next country ABC - Poland is one example - then break promise by expanding to that country.
Through 1990s and 2000s, UK & USA especially promised, hands off Ukraine / keep Ukraine neutral no matter what.
Obama-Biden threw that out window, arranged Donbas war & 2014 coup.
(The 2014 coup where USA Victoria Nuland famously said "Fuck the EU." Only after USA coup, did Putin take Crimea.)
So yes, West & Ukraine gave Russia reason to feel a threat - and no, not my fault if u missed all that / u lack the knowledge.
Is Russia right? No - I still say, conflict of Evil vs Evil.
But 2 sides to any story, & only the blood-thirsty restrict their knowledge to 1 side of story.
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@blablarg18 Yes, you are just like Tucker. You just imply that someone is a pedo/Jew-hater rather than accuse them. Because that is VERY different. And I don't jump through hoops; you are just unable to see gray.
I've missed not one bit of the very complicated history that is Central/Eastern Europe. I know it very well for reasons that you wouldn't believe anyway, so why bother. My point was, feeling threatened or not, Russia started this war illegally. You don't get to start killing people just because you feel threatened. Unless you are living in a Red State. Putin needs to die. Ukraine needs to be free and pursue whatever they want as a sovereign nation. And if you listen to Putin and his cronies BS since just before all of this started, you will see what he has in mind. And it ain't compromise.
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"you are just like..." - What, ur not seeing people as like ur father this time?
btw Churchill, how's ur progress to Bakhmut front line? Crossed border yet? Keep us posted.
I'll let you know what 100000 degrees heat is like. You know, if USA or Russia nuke where I live. Or if Ukraine bomb goes off - which of course couldn't be them becuz even tho yes it was them, "we all know" (eyeroll) how only Unique-Devil Russia ever would do such things, even when Ukraine did it.
Wish me luck.
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@blablarg18 Good luck.
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