DADT Repeal: What Will – And Likely Won't -- Happen
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WASHINGTON – Now that President Barack Obama has signed the repeal of the Pentagon's "don't ask, don't tell" policy, what happens next?
Here is what will -- and what some predict will -- take place as the military lifts the ban on open military service by gays and lesbians.
Definitely Will Happen:
Nothing immediately. DADT remains in effect until 60 days after Obama and military leaders certify they have a plan of action to ensure a smooth transition. That could take months.
Implementation. Changes to policies, the Uniformed Code of Military Justice, personnel benefits and other areas will be phased in over time under a detailed plan all ready to be implemented.
Likely to Happen:
A Return to the Ranks: Once repeal is final, some of the 14,000 troops discharged for being gay will seek to rejoin the military. It's not clear how many will want to resume their careers, but those who do will have to pass the usual physical and meet age and other qualifications before they can return.
More New Recruits. Some gays and lesbians who would never have considered a military career because they would have had to hide their sexual orientation may be more inclined to enlist.
ROTC to return to the Ivy League. After kicking the Reserve Officers' Training Corp off campus during the Vietnam War, many elite universities kept it out because they said the military's policy violated their nondiscrimination policies. But now Harvard -- where Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan upheld the ban when she headed the law school there -- and Yale appear ready to welcome ROTC back, a move defense expert Eliot Cohen says will benefit both the military and academia.
What Conservatives Warn Will Happen (and Supporters of Repeal Say Will Not):
Casualties Will Rise. Gen. James Amos, the Marine Corps commandant, had warned that repeal could "cost Marines lives" and lead to Marines "with no legs" because of the distraction of serving with gays on the front lines. Of all the troops surveyed by the Pentagon, those in combat are most opposed to repeal.
Yet the report found that most service members already know gays in their units, and reports from the front line indicate more tolerance for gay troops than conservatives believe. And Amos has since saluted the change and said he will "personally lead" the integration of gays into the Marine Corps.
Gay Sex Will Run Rampant. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council warns that "homosexual misconduct" such as "sexual bullying, male rape and forcible sodomy" will soar.
Military leaders dismiss such scenarios, noting that gay and lesbian troops will be held to the same standards that prohibit sexual misconduct by straight men and women in the ranks.
There Will Be a Mass Exodus. Republican Sen. John McCain warned that the equivalent of at least 14 Army divisions, or 265,000 troops, would leave the military sooner than planned because they object to serving with open homosexuals.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said homophobes can't "just say, 'I'm outta here'" and must complete their contractual obligations before leaving. Pentagon leaders also cite the experiences of 25 countries that already allow gays to serve openly. For them, gay integration has been a "non-event" with little impact on recruiting and retention.
Chaplains Will Abandon Their Pulpits. Conservative Christian chaplains are among the most opposed to homosexuality, and some retired clergy predict many will leave the military to avoid counseling gay troops.
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The Pentagon said chaplains won't be forced to change their world view but will be encouraged to "continue to respect and serve with others who hold different views and beliefs." Others say that the threat to religious liberty has been overstated and that chaplains have always been required to minister to all troops, not just those who share their moral values.Return of the Draft. Despite the experience of Britain, Australia and other allies, Perkins and others are calling repeal the "Bring Back the Draft Act," issuing dire predictions that wary parents won't let their sons and daughters enlist and that the all-volunteer military will have to resort to conscription to fill its ranks.
British military officials shared the same fears 10 years ago when that nation's volunteer force dropped its ban on gays. Experience, confirmed by peer-reviewed academic studies, have shown no impact on recruiting and retention.
